Future industry modeling
Future of energy
ANDRII KASHPUR, FUTUREDEVELOPER

Published by Solar Abilities April 12, 2025
«Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine yesterday adopted the series of laws promoting the transition of Ukraine to 100% renewable energy production by 2045. In particular, the series of laws envisage the continuation of state support to research (RnD) and educational centers of Ukrainian energy producers and finally synchronizes Ukrainian legislation in the field of energy with the legislation of the EU countries and also contains the key provisions of the roadmap of transition for 10 years from the current 15% to the planned 100% RES-generation. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the profile Minister of ecology and energy positively estimated the quality and potential of new series of laws. The market also reacted positively – with the increase in the value of shares of Ukrainian manufacturing and RES-generating companies in London and Tokyo stock exchanges. RES operators stress on the need for a clearer definition of the key provisions of the roadmap. Solar Abilities is currently starts consultations between representatives of the profile ministry and leading market operators. The events are closely followed by the public. Reviews and ratings of the public are updated online at our site».

Such statement may appear in the information field in several years. Actually, this is the «projection of the future», which attracts so much attention of businessmen and politicians from leading countries today. From the beginning of the XXI century the issues of research and description of probable future gained in the international community of professional, scientific and institutional development. It was even discussed by the Nobel Prize Committee. Nassim Talib, Francis Fukuyama, Baar Braumuller, Nick Bostrom, George Friedman, Stephen Hawking, University of Singularity – this is just some of names and brands of leading future researchers. However, the major changes took place not in quantitative terms, but in qualitative parameters – there was a change in the paradigm of the approach to the future from politicians and business persons. The «predict and prepare» approach was changed into the «design and implement» approach. To replace the reactive strategy – the response to internal and external events, comes proactive strategy – to define the goal and attract resources to achieve it. Even more – not just to define the purpose, but to define such goal, which today may seem impossible or, in general, go beyond the existing outlook. Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg – unlike Nikola Tesla, Albert Einstein and other geniuses of the past century – not only saw the future, but also managed to gather the necessary resources for its implementation. This actually is a proactive strategy. And today we see how countries, companies, or even individuals who choose a proactive strategy win, in the sense that they create the future that they consider to be positive for themselves and for those who support them with their resources with money or attention.
In fact, designing the future is a rather complicated science with certain techniques and tools. And the application of these tools makes it possible to design the development of vital systems and industries in a situation of dynamic changes in internal and external circumstances in a highly competitive environment. Meaning the world in which we live.
Actually, it became a project task for the ReputationLab (Ukraine) research team, which during August-September 2018 conducted a series of strategic simulations in order to find the answer to the question: does Ukraine stand a chance to build a new efficient energy or it does not? The first such simulation took place by the SW-ReaLity methodology and gave an opportunity to see the existing alignment of the forces of influence on the situation and possible changes in the positions of key stakeholders.
The next step took place in October- November, two strategic sessions were held with the members of the Solar Energy Association and experts in finance, communications, lawmaking etc. The result of this work was the project of strategic vision, the shortened version of which is depicted on the picture. This model reflects possible scenarios for Ukraine's energy development, which aims to achieve parity in energy development with European countries in 2045-2050 (provided that the pace of development of RES-generation in Europe and the world will not accelerate, which is already quite possible).
Moving through five interconnected systems (Ukrainian society, domestic politics in Ukraine, economy, European policy, global technology development and their reflection in Ukraine) from the sign event of 2050 (transition to 100% of the RES-generation in Ukraine) to a current year, experts have seen and outlined key events that allow the transition from the state of «today» to the status of «project future». It's clear that this model is simplified and takes into account only one of many possible scenarios and versions of the future. But it gives us the opportunity and basis for detailing the key parameters of the system, the vision of existing and probable nodal points (intersections). And most importantly – it becomes a subject for discussion among various experts and practitioners: engineers, legislators, politicians, representatives of the public, economists, businessmen...
Each of them has the resources needed to create the future we consider to be positive for us. This is, in fact, a proactive approach. And the combination of these resources will allow us to read: «Yesterday Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted series of laws promoting the transition of Ukraine to 100% renewable energy production by 2045». Right in this journal in a few years.